Climate change confirmed but global warming is cancelled

April 29th 2008 10:51 pm

Ingen seriøse videnskabsmænd bestrider i dag, at hovedparten af den globale opvamrning skyldes CO2 og andre drivhusgasser, som mennesket udleder.

Som jeg har skrevet før, så er det sådan Politiken skriver i alle faktabokse hørende til artikler om klimaet. I dagens JP er der et læserbrev, der henviser til en artikel i den New Zeelandske avis, National Business Review. De i artiklen omtalte videnskabsmænd ville nok være lidt fornærmede, hvis de forstod dansk og læste Politiken.

 Her et par uddrag:

In December last year, at the UN conference in Bali, I heard Viscount Monckton present a paper prepared by himself, the Australian Dr David Evans and our own Dr Vincent Gray (who were at Bali, too) that showed while the IPCC models predict that greenhouse gases would produce an extensive “hot spot” in the upper troposphere over the tropics, the satellite measurements show no such hotspots have appeared.

Monckton and Evans found a large part of this discrepancy is the result of some basic errors in the IPCC’s assessment of the Stefan-Boltzmann equation. When they applied their revised factor to the effect of greenhouse gases, the temperature rise was about a third of that predicted by the IPCC.

So by late last year we not only knew IPCC forecasts of atmospheric global warming were wrong; we were beginning to understand why they are wrong.

Senere kan man læse denne pointe, som totalt mangler i den danske debat:

Put together, these uncertainties raise doubts as to whether the IPCC models can accurately forecast the climate over the long term. If they cannot, then we have to wonder how much damage we should risk doing to the world’s economies in attempts to manage the possibly adverse effects of these “predictions.”

Conny Hedegaard m.fl. siger altid, at hvis det viser sig, at drivhusgasteorien er forkert, så har det jo ingen skade gjort begrænse drivhusgasudledningen. Men disse forsøg bremser den økonomiske vækst (færre kommer ud af fattigdom), og fremkomsten af bioethanol har jo heller ikke været omkostningsfri i relation til den igangværende fødevarerkrise.

Men læs selv resten af artiklen, som er ganske interessant, hvis man interesserer sig for klimadiskussionen.

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